Monte Carlo Studio
Your plan, run 10,000 times.
Monte Carlo Studio is built to take ranges for the inputs you're unsure about and show the likely runway, the unlucky case, and which input moves the result most.
Take rate 8% to 12%, shipper growth 3% to 9% a month, shipper churn 2% to 5%.
1 in 10 runs falls below 12 months. Churn drives most of it.
- Runway, P10The unlucky path: high churn and slow shipper growth.12 moP10
- Runway, P50The middle outcome across all 10,000 runs.19 moP50
- Shipper churnMoves runway up to 6 months either way across its range.±6 moRank 1
- Take rateMoves runway up to 4 months either way. Growth barely moves it.±4 moRank 2
Plans that only work in the base case
The worst case blindsides you
You planned for the base case, and the bad month arrived anyway.
Too many moving parts
Price, churn, hiring and growth all move at once, and you can't hold every combination in your head.
You sweat the wrong number
Without knowing which lever matters, you obsess over one that barely moves runway.
See the full range of outcomes
Thousands of simulations fan out into a P10, P50 and P90 spread, and the month cash could run out is flagged.
Where the plan breaks if things go wrong
Example: runway in an unlucky year
Most plans look fine in the middle and fall apart at the edges. Monte Carlo Studio is built to run your model thousands of times across the things you're least sure about, so you see the unlucky paths early, while you can still steer around them.
- Define ranges for your shakiest inputs
- See P10 / P50 / P90 outcomes at a glance
- Find which lever actually moves the answer
What thousands of runs tell you
Three decisions to make after you've seen how your plan does in its unlucky runs. No statistics background needed.
See the full spread of outcomes
Ranges for uncertain inputs
Enter a low and a high for each uncertain input instead of a single guess.
10,000 runs
Each scenario is run 10,000 times with different combinations of your inputs.
The unlucky case
Highlights the P10 outcome, the result only 1 in 10 runs falls below, so you see it early.
Tornado charts
A bar for each input, longest first, showing how far it moves runway across its range.
From uncertain inputs to a tighter plan
- Step 1
Pick your bets
Choose the variables you're least sure about and define their ranges.
- Step 2
Run the sweep
Run 10,000 simulations across the ranges you set.
- Step 3
Read the spread
Low, middle and high outcomes (P10, P50, P90), with a tornado chart ranking each input.
- Step 4
Tighten the plan
Reduce risk by acting on the inputs that actually move the answer.
Questions about Monte Carlo simulation
What is Monte Carlo, in plain terms?
It runs your plan thousands of times, each with slightly different assumptions, so you see the full spread of what could happen, not just one tidy line.
What do I need to provide?
A low and a high for the inputs you're unsure about, such as monthly growth between 4% and 9%. The studio handles the rest.
How do I read the result?
You get a low, middle, and high outcome (P10/P50/P90) plus a ranked list of which inputs drove the spread.
Other ways to test your plan
See all productsFind the downside while you can still plan for it
Pick the inputs you're least sure of and see how far your runway could fall in an unlucky year.