Checklist · Assumptions
Founder assumptions checklist
The assumptions investors and lenders usually question first, listed so you can check each one has a source.
This checklist is for founders pressure-testing a model before they show it to anyone.
For illustration only: any business or figures shown here are made up, and your own results will differ.
Revenue assumptions
- How you acquire customers and at what cost
- Conversion, repeat purchase and retention rates
- Pricing, and how a price change affects conversion and churn
- Growth built from leads, conversion and retention rather than a flat monthly rate
Cost & cash assumptions
- Unit cost and gross margin
- Fixed vs variable cost split
- Cash timing and working capital
- The month cash falls below your safety buffer
Risk assumptions
- The single assumption that breaks the business
- What has to be true for the plan to work
- Where each number came from (a source, or your own estimate)
- What you'd do if the downside hits
Questions founders ask
What assumptions do investors check first?
Acquisition cost and retention, pricing, gross margin, cash timing, and the single riskiest assumption the plan depends on.
How do I make assumptions defensible?
Tie each one to a source, or label it as an estimate, and note what happens to runway if it is wrong.
Where do I start?
List the assumptions, mark the riskiest, and stress-test those first.
Build this on your own numbers
Join early access and build a version of this from your own assumptions and actuals.