Scenario planning guide
A short guide to scenario planning for founders, how to compare a base, upside, and downside so you can defend the plan and see what breaks the business.
This example is forany founder who needs to show investors or a board that they've stress-tested the plan.
Illustrative example, sample data only, not guaranteed outcomes.
How to scenario-plan
- Start from a base case built on real drivers
- Change one assumption at a time
- Build an upside and a downside, not just a guess
- Find the assumption that breaks the business
- Show the trade-off, not just the number
What good looks like
- A delta sentence: '10% CAC drop pushes runway 14→18 mo'
- Scenarios that share one model
- An AI mentor that explains the risk
- An output you can defend in a room
Questions founders ask
What is scenario planning?+
Comparing a base case with an upside and a downside by changing key assumptions, to see the trade-offs and what breaks the business.
How many scenarios do I need?+
Usually three to four, a base, an upside, and one or two downside stress tests on the riskiest assumptions.
Why does it matter for a raise?+
It shows you understand your own risks and can defend the plan when an investor pushes on it.
Build this on your own numbers
This is an illustrative example. Get early access and build your own model, plan, and investor pack, with numbers you can explain.
From idea to investor-ready · built for founders, not finance teams